position in cohort distributionone of 14 in cohort
percentile
p23
momentum is the combined velocity and citation signal, percentile within cohort
velocity z
velocity z
-2.31 σ
slope
-0.035/wk
log-slope -0.035/wk
convergence planefull gate = rising
velocity z
-2.31
citation z
no axis
peers
13
single-axis: citation axis absent, excluded from the plane.
citation z
∅no citation axis
no citation axis
cohort
14
systems measured
weekly commits
7.2
not rising
total citations
n/a
no axis
momentum
21.1
percentile p23
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks7.2/wk
weeks
26
peak/wk
33
active
26
total
317
citations by yearno axis
∅no citation axisaxis status: absent
AReaL holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 21.1 of 100 on methodology m2, snapshot 2026-08-08, measured within the Post-training & Alignment cohort (n = 14). No axis is currently rising within the cohort, and no second (citation) axis is available, so it sits below the two-axis gate.
Derived signals
second-order reads, computed from the published series
Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state
until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number.
How these are computed.
swing
+25.81×
regime
accelerating
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
sharpe
-0.034
95% ci
-0.057, -0.012
dof
50
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
date
week
7 of 52
Δslope
-3.026/wk
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
code-leads-citation lagreserved
reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation
status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
axis alpha vs cohortreserved
reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)
status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
gate ETAreserved
reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)
status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
methodology gate
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
commit weeks
52
citation years
0
shipped
3
reserved
3
shipped
recency-swing
commit-sharpe
commit-changepoint
reserved
code-leads-citation-lag
axis-alpha
gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
Verdict
AReaL is tracked. No axis is currently rising relative to its cohort, and it has no second (citation) axis available.
Path to Rising: needs development velocity to turn positive within its cohort; a second measurable axis to exist (no academic paper is currently tracked).
