position in cohort distributionone of 14 in cohort
percentile
p15
momentum is the combined velocity and citation signal, percentile within cohort
velocity z
velocity z
-2.99 σ
slope
-0.065/wk
log-slope -0.065/wk
convergence planefull gate = rising
velocity z
-2.99
citation z
no axis
peers
13
single-axis: citation axis absent, excluded from the plane.
citation z
∅no citation axis
no citation axis
cohort
14
systems measured
weekly commits
1.7
not rising
total citations
n/a
no axis
momentum
12.6
percentile p15
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks1.7/wk
weeks
26
peak/wk
23
active
19
total
104
citations by yearno axis
∅no citation axisaxis status: insufficient
ROLL holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 12.6 of 100 on methodology m2, snapshot 2026-08-08, measured within the Post-training & Alignment cohort (n = 14). No axis is currently rising within the cohort, and no second (citation) axis is available, so it sits below the two-axis gate.
Derived signals
second-order reads, computed from the published series
Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state
until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number.
How these are computed.
swing
+3.28×
regime
accelerating
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
sharpe
-0.041
95% ci
-0.063, -0.018
dof
50
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
date
week
4 of 52
Δslope
-4.707/wk
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
code-leads-citation lagreserved
reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation
status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
axis alpha vs cohortreserved
reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)
status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
gate ETAreserved
reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)
status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
methodology gate
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
commit weeks
52
citation years
1
shipped
3
reserved
3
shipped
recency-swing
commit-sharpe
commit-changepoint
reserved
code-leads-citation-lag
axis-alpha
gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
Verdict
ROLL is tracked. No axis is currently rising relative to its cohort, and it has no second (citation) axis available.
Path to Rising: needs development velocity to recover (at least 5 commits per week and a positive within-cohort slope); its citation history to mature (at least 3 completed years) and rise.
