Evidaxis

ESM / ESMFold

repo incumbent
AI Drug Discovery · n = 19 · facebookresearch/esm
Calibration · conf medium
momentum
momentum 52.9 of 100 52.9 /100
momentum
52.9/100
pctile
p67
convergence gate
Convergence gate: gate shut × ×
gate
0 of 2 axes

gate shut.

gate shut
position in cohort distribution one of 19 in cohort
percentile 67 within cohort p25 p50 p75 p0 p100
percentile
p67
momentum is the combined velocity and citation signal, percentile within cohort
velocity z
velocity z gaugevelocity z-0.03 within cohort, log-slope +0.000/wk.0-0.03
velocity z
-0.03 σ
slope
+0.000/wk
log-slope +0.000/wk
convergence planefull gate = rising
ESM / ESMFold on the convergence plane ESM / ESMFold at velocity z -0.03 and citation z +0.49, against 13 dual-axis cohort peers. neither axis clears the Rising gate (z>=1 + positive slope). z>=1 median velocity z → citation z ↑ AlphaFold3: velocity z -0.56, citation z +0.42 Boltz: velocity z -2.58, citation z +2.07 DeepChem: velocity z +2.96, citation z -0.73 DiffDock: velocity z +0.01, citation z -0.35 Foldseek: velocity z -2.99, citation z +0.66 gnina: velocity z +2.86, citation z -0.35 Graphormer: velocity z +0.99, citation z -0.23 OpenFold: velocity z -0.02, citation z -0.41 ProteinMPNN: velocity z +0.00, citation z -0.51 RFdiffusion: velocity z +0.66, citation z +0.09 SaProt: velocity z -1.85, citation z +1.10 TorchDrug: velocity z +0.01, citation z -0.18 Uni-Mol: velocity z +0.01, citation z +0.54 ESM / ESMFold
velocity z
-0.03
citation z
+0.49
peers
18

neither axis clears the Rising gate (z>=1 + positive slope).

citation z
citation z gaugecitation z+0.49 within cohort, log-slope +1.633/yr.0+0.49
citation z
+0.49 σ
slope
+1.633/yr
log-slope +1.633/yr
cohort
19
systems measured
weekly commits
0
not rising
total citations
5,769
present
momentum
52.9
percentile p67
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks0/wk
weekly commits, 26 weeks26 weeks of commits, peak 0 in a week, 0 active weeks, 0 total.week 1: 0 commitsweek 2: 0 commitsweek 3: 0 commitsweek 4: 0 commitsweek 5: 0 commitsweek 6: 0 commitsweek 7: 0 commitsweek 8: 0 commitsweek 9: 0 commitsweek 10: 0 commitsweek 11: 0 commitsweek 12: 0 commitsweek 13: 0 commitsweek 14: 0 commitsweek 15: 0 commitsweek 16: 0 commitsweek 17: 0 commitsweek 18: 0 commitsweek 19: 0 commitsweek 20: 0 commitsweek 21: 0 commitsweek 22: 0 commitsweek 23: 0 commitsweek 24: 0 commitsweek 25: 0 commitsweek 26: 0 commits
weeks
26
peak/wk
0
active
0
total
0
citations by yeartotal 5,769
Citations by year2012: 3, 2013: 1, 2020: 1, 2022: 52, 2023: 736, 2024: 1507, 2025: 2048, 2026: 1421. Total 5769 citations.2012: 3 citations1232013: 1 citations1312020: 1 citations2012022: 52 citations22522023: 736 citations237362024: 1507 citations2415072025: 2048 citations2520482026: 1421 citations261421
total cites
5769
years
8
latest yr
1421

ESM / ESMFold holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 52.9 of 100 on methodology m2, snapshot 2026-08-08, measured within the AI Drug Discovery cohort (n = 19). It is a mature incumbent included to calibrate the cohort, measured but not gate-eligible.

Derived signals

second-order reads, computed from the published series

Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number. How these are computed.

recency-weighted swing trailing 13-week vs prior 39-week log-slope ratio +0.00, regime flat. prior slope +0.000, recent slope +0.000 per week. +0.000prior 39w+0.000recent 13w+0.00×
swing
+0.00×
regime
flat
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
commit Sharpereserved: <26 non-zero commit weeks
commit changepoint52 weekly commit points. No significant changepoint detected (|delta slope| within the noise floor).no significant changepoint
changepoint
none detected
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
code-leads-citation lag reserved

reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
axis alpha vs cohort reserved

reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
gate ETA reserved

reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)

status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
methodology gate snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
commit weeks
52
citation years
8
shipped
2
reserved
4

shipped

  • recency-swing
  • commit-changepoint

reserved

  • commit-sharpe
  • code-leads-citation-lag
  • axis-alpha
  • gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2

Verdict

ESM / ESMFold is a mature incumbent included to calibrate its cohort. It is measured but not badge-eligible.

Sources

facebookresearch/esm development-velocity axis
OpenAlex paper citation-momentum axis

Embed this badge

Evidaxis calibration, ESM / ESMFold
[![Evidaxis: ESM / ESMFold](https://evidaxis.org/badge/e_W8KZKY27BTN/2026-w32.svg)](https://evidaxis.org/e/e_W8KZKY27BTN)

Others in AI Drug Discovery

AlphaFold3 AI Drug Discovery
Calibration
49
p50
vel -0.56 cit +0.42
axis dials
-0.56 +0.42
BioEmu AI Drug Discovery
Single-axis
88
p100
vel +3.02 cit no axis
axis dials
+3.02 n/a
Boltz AI Drug Discovery
Watch
47
p22
vel -2.58 cit +2.07
axis dials
-2.58 +2.07
Chai-1 AI Drug Discovery
Single-axis
30
p6
vel -1.62 cit no axis
axis dials
-1.62 n/a
DeepChem AI Drug Discovery
Tracked
64
p89
vel +2.96 cit -0.73
axis dials
+2.96 -0.73
DiffDock AI Drug Discovery
Tracked
48
p39
vel +0.01 cit -0.35
axis dials
+0.01 -0.35

Full AI Drug Discovery cohort →

entity_id e_W8KZKY27BTN methodology m2 snapshot 035a72a81e59 period 2026-w32 record JSON ↓ source snapshot

Score derived from public data on Evidaxis methodology m2, never edited by hand. Cite as: “Evidaxis, ESM / ESMFold, entity e_W8KZKY27BTN, snapshot 2026-w32.”

Durable reference (format-independent): urn:evidaxis:claim:e_W8KZKY27BTN:m2:2026-08-08