Evidaxis

AlphaFold3

repo reference measurement
AI Drug Discovery · n = 19 · google-deepmind/alphafold3
2 of 3 axes measurable · conf medium
convergence gate
Convergence gate: Gate: not computable — reference measurement Development velocity: measured × Citation momentum: measured × Direct-dependents momentum (deps.dev): not measurable ∅
gate
0 of 3 axes

Gate: not computable — reference measurement

Gate: not computable — reference measurement
position in cohort distribution one of 19 in cohort
percentile 61 within cohort p25 p50 p75 p0 p100
percentile
p61
momentum averages present-axis z-scores; two- and three-axis scores are not strictly comparable
velocity z
velocity z gaugevelocity z-0.23 within cohort, log-slope -0.001/wk.0-0.23
velocity z
-0.23 σ
slope
-0.001/wk
log-slope -0.001/wk
citation z
citation z gaugecitation z+0.40 within cohort, log-slope +1.803/yr.0+0.40
citation z
+0.40 σ
slope
+1.803/yr
log-slope +1.803/yr
direct-dependents z Direct-dependents axis: minimum of 14 clean points and 5 latest dependents not met.
cohort
19
systems measured
weekly commits
3.4
Development velocity axis: measured.
total citations
16,030
Citation axis: measured.
momentum
51.1
percentile p61
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks3.4/wk
weekly commits, 26 weeks26 weeks of commits, peak 14 in a week, 22 active weeks, 75 total.week 1: 4 commitsweek 2: 1 commitsweek 3: 0 commitsweek 4: 7 commitsweek 5: 0 commitsweek 6: 4 commitsweek 7: 6 commitsweek 8: 3 commitsweek 9: 2 commitsweek 10: 1 commitsweek 11: 2 commitsweek 12: 0 commitsweek 13: 2 commitsweek 14: 2 commitsweek 15: 5 commitsweek 16: 5 commitsweek 17: 4 commitsweek 18: 4 commitsweek 19: 0 commitsweek 20: 14 commitsweek 21: 3 commitsweek 22: 1 commitsweek 23: 1 commitsweek 24: 1 commitsweek 25: 1 commitsweek 26: 2 commits
weeks
26
peak/wk
14
active
22
total
75
citations by yeartotal 16,030
Citations by year2014: 1, 2020: 1, 2021: 1, 2022: 4, 2023: 18, 2024: 1918, 2025: 7526, 2026: 6561. Total 16030 citations.2014: 1 citations1412020: 1 citations2012021: 1 citations2112022: 4 citations2242023: 18 citations23182024: 1918 citations2419182025: 7526 citations2575262026: 6561 citations266561
total cites
16030
years
8
latest yr
6561

AlphaFold3 holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 51.1 of 100 on methodology m3, snapshot 2026-09-26, measured within the AI Drug Discovery cohort (n = 19). Axis coverage: 2 of 3 axes measurable. Gate: not computable — reference measurement

Derived signals

second-order reads, computed from the published series

Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number. How these are computed.

recency-weighted swing trailing 13-week vs prior 39-week log-slope ratio -7.64, regime recent slope sign differs from prior window. prior slope +0.009, recent slope -0.072 per week. +0.009prior 39w-0.072recent 13w-7.64×
swing
-7.64×
regime
recent slope sign differs from prior window
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
commit-axis Sharpe log-linear slope over residual std, value +0.014 with 95% CI -0.005 to +0.034, 50 degrees of freedom. CI spans zero.0+0.01495% CI -0.005, +0.034-0.005+0.034
sharpe
+0.014
95% ci
-0.005, +0.034
dof
50
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
commit changepoint52 weekly commit points. No significant changepoint detected (|delta slope| within the noise floor).no significant changepoint
changepoint
none detected
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
code-leads-citation lag reserved

reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
axis alpha vs cohort reserved

reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
gate ETA reserved

reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)

status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
methodology gate snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
commit weeks
52
citation years
8
shipped
3
reserved
3

shipped

  • recency-swing
  • commit-sharpe
  • commit-changepoint

reserved

  • code-leads-citation-lag
  • axis-alpha
  • gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3

Reconstructed history

AlphaFold3 reconstructed weekly commits37 points, range 1 to 14 commits/wk.
min
1 commits/wk
max
14 commits/wk
latest
1 commits/wk
points
37

Weekly commits over the past year, reconstructed from git history (GitHub commit_activity). This is reconstructed, not a point-in-time capture. Evidaxis captures the Type-2 signals (watchers, issues, dependents) live and never backfills them; those are the moat.

Measurement states

AlphaFold3 is under weekly measurement. History: 13 weekly observations; minimum 4. Development velocity axis: measured. Citation axis: measured. Direct-dependents axis: minimum of 14 clean points and 5 latest dependents not met. Gate: not computable — reference measurement

Sources

google-deepmind/alphafold3 development-velocity axis
OpenAlex paper citation-momentum axis

Others in AI Drug Discovery

BioEmu AI Drug Discovery
1 of 3 axes measurable
85
p100
vel +2.78 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
+2.78 n/a n/a
Boltz AI Drug Discovery
2 of 3 axes measurable
46
p28
vel -2.76 cit +2.04 deps no axis
axis dials
-2.76 +2.04 n/a
Chai-1 AI Drug Discovery
1 of 3 axes measurable
13
p0
vel -2.98 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
-2.98 n/a n/a
DeepChem AI Drug Discovery
3 of 3 axes measurable
61
p83
vel +3.38 cit -0.73 deps +0.00
axis dials
+3.38 -0.73 +0.00
DiffDock AI Drug Discovery
2 of 3 axes measurable
48
p44
vel -0.05 cit -0.35 deps no axis
axis dials
-0.05 -0.35 n/a
DiffSBDD AI Drug Discovery
1 of 3 axes measurable
45
p22
vel -0.36 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
-0.36 n/a n/a

Full AI Drug Discovery cohort →

Direct-dependents momentum (deps.dev)

Direct-dependents axis: minimum of 14 clean points and 5 latest dependents not met.

Coverage state
below_floor
Cohort z
no axis
OLS slope
n/a
Theil-Sen slope
n/a
Latest direct dependents
n/a
Confirmed-clean points
0
Reconstructed history points
n/a
As-of partition
n/a
Fragility veto
n/a
Rising vote
no

Source: deps.dev (Google), CC-BY 4.0. Modified: aggregated to system-level counts and momentum scores.

Axis definition · Snapshot axis correlations

entity_id e_88YAM3PXK4S methodology m3 snapshot 9d2fe956adbc period 2026-w39 record JSON ↓ source snapshot

Score derived from public data on Evidaxis methodology m3, never edited by hand. Cite as: “Evidaxis, AlphaFold3, entity e_88YAM3PXK4S, snapshot 2026-w39.”

Durable reference (format-independent): urn:evidaxis:claim:e_88YAM3PXK4S:m3:2026-09-26