Evidaxis

AlphaFold3

repo reference measurement
AI Drug Discovery · n = 19 · google-deepmind/alphafold3
2 of 3 axes measurable · conf medium
convergence gate
Convergence gate: Gate: not computable — reference measurement Development velocity: measured × Citation momentum: measured × Direct-dependents momentum (deps.dev): not measurable ∅
gate
0 of 3 axes

Gate: not computable — reference measurement

Gate: not computable — reference measurement
position in cohort distribution one of 19 in cohort
percentile 61 within cohort p25 p50 p75 p0 p100
percentile
p61
momentum averages present-axis z-scores; two- and three-axis scores are not strictly comparable
velocity z
velocity z gaugevelocity z-0.81 within cohort, log-slope -0.003/wk.0-0.81
velocity z
-0.81 σ
slope
-0.003/wk
log-slope -0.003/wk
citation z
citation z gaugecitation z+0.71 within cohort, log-slope +1.778/yr.0+0.71
citation z
+0.71 σ
slope
+1.778/yr
log-slope +1.778/yr
direct-dependents z Direct-dependents axis: no admitted own package; not measured.
cohort
19
systems measured
weekly commits
3.6
Development velocity axis: measured.
total citations
15,552
Citation axis: measured.
momentum
49.4
percentile p61
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks3.6/wk
weekly commits, 26 weeks26 weeks of commits, peak 14 in a week, 22 active weeks, 86 total.week 1: 7 commitsweek 2: 0 commitsweek 3: 4 commitsweek 4: 6 commitsweek 5: 3 commitsweek 6: 2 commitsweek 7: 1 commitsweek 8: 2 commitsweek 9: 0 commitsweek 10: 2 commitsweek 11: 2 commitsweek 12: 5 commitsweek 13: 5 commitsweek 14: 4 commitsweek 15: 4 commitsweek 16: 0 commitsweek 17: 14 commitsweek 18: 3 commitsweek 19: 1 commitsweek 20: 1 commitsweek 21: 1 commitsweek 22: 1 commitsweek 23: 6 commitsweek 24: 3 commitsweek 25: 9 commitsweek 26: 0 commits
weeks
26
peak/wk
14
active
22
total
86
citations by yeartotal 15,552
Citations by year2014: 1, 2020: 1, 2021: 1, 2022: 2, 2023: 11, 2024: 1592, 2025: 7021, 2026: 6923. Total 15552 citations.2014: 1 citations1412020: 1 citations2012021: 1 citations2112022: 2 citations2222023: 11 citations23112024: 1592 citations2415922025: 7021 citations2570212026: 6923 citations266923
total cites
15552
years
8
latest yr
6923

AlphaFold3 holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 49.4 of 100 on methodology m4, snapshot 2026-10-10, measured within the AI Drug Discovery cohort (n = 19). Axis coverage: 2 of 3 axes measurable. Gate: not computable — reference measurement

Derived signals

second-order reads, computed from the published series

Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number. How these are computed.

recency-weighted swing trailing 13-week vs prior 39-week log-slope ratio -2.22, regime recent slope sign differs from prior window. prior slope +0.011, recent slope -0.024 per week. +0.011prior 39w-0.024recent 13w-2.22×
swing
-2.22×
regime
recent slope sign differs from prior window
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m4
commit-axis Sharpe log-linear slope over residual std, value +0.012 with 95% CI -0.006 to +0.031, 50 degrees of freedom. CI spans zero.0+0.01295% CI -0.006, +0.031-0.006+0.031
sharpe
+0.012
95% ci
-0.006, +0.031
dof
50
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m4
commit changepoint52 weekly commit points. No significant changepoint detected (|delta slope| within the noise floor).no significant changepoint
changepoint
none detected
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m4
code-leads-citation lag reserved

reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m4
axis alpha vs cohort reserved

reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m4
gate ETA reserved

reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)

status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m4
methodology gate snapshot 1 of 1 · · m4
commit weeks
52
citation years
8
shipped
3
reserved
3

shipped

  • recency-swing
  • commit-sharpe
  • commit-changepoint

reserved

  • code-leads-citation-lag
  • axis-alpha
  • gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m4

Reconstructed history

AlphaFold3 reconstructed weekly commits37 points, range 1 to 14 commits/wk.
min
1 commits/wk
max
14 commits/wk
latest
1 commits/wk
points
37

Weekly commits over the past year, reconstructed from git history (GitHub commit_activity). This is reconstructed, not a point-in-time capture. Evidaxis captures the Type-2 signals (watchers, issues, dependents) live and never backfills them; those are the moat.

Measurement states

AlphaFold3 is under weekly measurement. History: 15 weekly observations; minimum 4. Development velocity axis: measured. Citation axis: measured. Direct-dependents axis: no admitted own package; not measured. Gate: not computable — reference measurement

Sources

google-deepmind/alphafold3 development-velocity axis
OpenAlex paper citation-momentum axis

Others in AI Drug Discovery

BioEmu AI Drug Discovery
1 of 3 axes measurable
58
p89
vel +0.64 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
+0.64 n/a n/a
Boltz AI Drug Discovery
2 of 3 axes measurable
55
p78
vel -1.57 cit +2.44 deps no axis
axis dials
-1.57 +2.44 n/a
Chai-1 AI Drug Discovery
1 of 3 axes measurable
42
p33
vel -0.64 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
-0.64 n/a n/a
DeepChem AI Drug Discovery
3 of 3 axes measurable
40
p22
vel -1.66 cit -0.73 deps +0.00
axis dials
-1.66 -0.73 +0.00
DiffDock AI Drug Discovery
2 of 3 axes measurable
48
p50
vel -0.10 cit -0.28 deps no axis
axis dials
-0.10 -0.28 n/a
DiffSBDD AI Drug Discovery
1 of 3 axes measurable
41
p28
vel -0.70 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
-0.70 n/a n/a

Full AI Drug Discovery cohort →

Direct-dependents momentum (deps.dev)

Direct-dependents axis: no admitted own package; not measured.

Coverage state
out_of_panel
Cohort z
no axis
OLS slope
n/a
Theil-Sen slope
n/a
Latest direct dependents
n/a
Confirmed-clean points
n/a
Reconstructed history points
n/a
As-of partition
n/a
Fragility veto
n/a
Rising vote
no

Source: deps.dev (Google), CC-BY 4.0. Modified: aggregated to system-level counts and momentum scores.

Axis definition · Snapshot axis correlations

entity_id e_88YAM3PXK4S methodology m4 snapshot ad5e404d4f82 period 2026-w41 record JSON ↓ source snapshot

Score derived from public data on Evidaxis methodology m4, never edited by hand. Cite as: “Evidaxis, AlphaFold3, entity e_88YAM3PXK4S, snapshot 2026-w41.”

Durable reference (format-independent): urn:evidaxis:claim:e_88YAM3PXK4S:m4:2026-10-10