Evidaxis

AlphaFold3

repo reference measurement
AI Drug Discovery · n = 19 · google-deepmind/alphafold3
2 of 3 axes measurable · conf medium
convergence gate
Convergence gate: Gate: not computable — reference measurement Development velocity: rising vote Citation momentum: rising vote Direct-dependents momentum (deps.dev): not measurable ∅
gate
2 of 3 axes

Gate: not computable — reference measurement

Gate: not computable — reference measurement
position in cohort distribution one of 19 in cohort
percentile 100 within cohort p25 p50 p75 p0 p100
percentile
p100
momentum averages present-axis z-scores; two- and three-axis scores are not strictly comparable
velocity z
velocity z gaugevelocity z+2.77 within cohort, log-slope +0.059/wk.0+2.77
velocity z
+2.77 σ
slope
+0.059/wk
log-slope +0.059/wk
citation z
citation z gaugecitation z+1.67 within cohort, log-slope +2.923/yr.0+1.67
citation z
+1.67 σ
slope
+2.923/yr
log-slope +2.923/yr
direct-dependents z Direct-dependents axis: no admitted own package; not measured.
cohort
19
systems measured
weekly commits
10
Development velocity axis: measured.
total citations
16,150
Citation axis: measured.
momentum
77.7
percentile p100
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks10/wk
weekly commits, 26 weeks26 weeks of commits, peak 59 in a week, 24 active weeks, 170 total.week 1: 6 commitsweek 2: 3 commitsweek 3: 2 commitsweek 4: 1 commitsweek 5: 2 commitsweek 6: 0 commitsweek 7: 2 commitsweek 8: 2 commitsweek 9: 5 commitsweek 10: 5 commitsweek 11: 4 commitsweek 12: 4 commitsweek 13: 0 commitsweek 14: 14 commitsweek 15: 3 commitsweek 16: 1 commitsweek 17: 1 commitsweek 18: 1 commitsweek 19: 1 commitsweek 20: 6 commitsweek 21: 3 commitsweek 22: 9 commitsweek 23: 9 commitsweek 24: 14 commitsweek 25: 59 commitsweek 26: 13 commits
weeks
26
peak/wk
59
active
24
total
170
citations by yeartotal 16,150
Citations by year2014: 1, 2022: 1, 2023: 9, 2024: 1400, 2025: 6566, 2026: 8173. Total 16150 citations.2014: 1 citations1412022: 1 citations2212023: 9 citations2392024: 1400 citations2414002025: 6566 citations2565662026: 8173 citations268173
total cites
16150
years
6
latest yr
8173

AlphaFold3 holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 77.7 of 100 on methodology m5, snapshot 2026-11-07, measured within the AI Drug Discovery cohort (n = 19). Axis coverage: 2 of 3 axes measurable. Gate: not computable — reference measurement

Derived signals

second-order reads, computed from the published series

Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number. How these are computed.

recency-weighted swing trailing 13-week vs prior 39-week log-slope ratio +9.13, regime accelerating. prior slope +0.018, recent slope +0.164 per week. +0.018prior 39w+0.164recent 13w+9.13×
swing
+9.13×
regime
accelerating
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m5
commit-axis Sharpe log-linear slope over residual std, value +0.039 with 95% CI +0.017 to +0.062, 50 degrees of freedom. CI excludes zero.0+0.03995% CI +0.017, +0.062+0.017+0.062
sharpe
+0.039
95% ci
+0.017, +0.062
dof
50
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m5
commit changepoint52 weekly commit points. No significant changepoint detected (|delta slope| within the noise floor).no significant changepoint
changepoint
none detected
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m5
code-leads-citation lag reserved

reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m5
axis alpha vs cohort reserved

reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m5
gate ETA reserved

reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)

status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m5
methodology gate snapshot 1 of 1 · · m5
commit weeks
52
citation years
6
shipped
3
reserved
3

shipped

  • recency-swing
  • commit-sharpe
  • commit-changepoint

reserved

  • code-leads-citation-lag
  • axis-alpha
  • gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m5

Reconstructed history

AlphaFold3 reconstructed weekly commits37 points, range 1 to 14 commits/wk.
min
1 commits/wk
max
14 commits/wk
latest
1 commits/wk
points
37

Weekly commits over the past year, reconstructed from git history (GitHub commit_activity). This is reconstructed, not a point-in-time capture. Evidaxis captures the Type-2 signals (watchers, issues, dependents) live and never backfills them; those are the moat.

Measurement states

AlphaFold3 is under weekly measurement. History: 19 weekly observations; minimum 4. Development velocity axis: measured. Citation axis: measured. Direct-dependents axis: no admitted own package; not measured. Gate: not computable — reference measurement

Sources

google-deepmind/alphafold3 development-velocity axis
OpenAlex paper citation-momentum axis

Others in AI Drug Discovery

BioEmu AI Drug Discovery
1 of 3 axes measurable
27
p6
vel -1.86 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
-1.86 n/a n/a
Boltz AI Drug Discovery
1 of 3 axes measurable
22
p0
vel -2.21 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
-2.21 n/a n/a
Chai-1 AI Drug Discovery
1 of 3 axes measurable
65
p78
vel +1.18 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
+1.18 n/a n/a
DeepChem AI Drug Discovery
3 of 3 axes measurable
32
p11
vel -3.20 cit -1.24 deps +0.00
axis dials
-3.20 -1.24 +0.00
DiffDock AI Drug Discovery
2 of 3 axes measurable
48
p39
vel +0.03 cit -0.28 deps no axis
axis dials
+0.03 -0.28 n/a
DiffSBDD AI Drug Discovery
2 of 3 axes measurable
55
p61
vel +0.19 cit +0.65 deps no axis
axis dials
+0.19 +0.65 n/a

Full AI Drug Discovery cohort →

Direct-dependents momentum (deps.dev)

Direct-dependents axis: no admitted own package; not measured.

Coverage state
out_of_panel
Cohort z
no axis
OLS slope
n/a
Theil-Sen slope
n/a
Latest direct dependents
n/a
Confirmed-clean points
n/a
Reconstructed history points
n/a
As-of partition
n/a
Fragility veto
n/a
Rising vote
no

Source: deps.dev (Google), CC-BY 4.0. Modified: aggregated to system-level counts and momentum scores.

Axis definition · Snapshot axis correlations

entity_id e_88YAM3PXK4S methodology m5 snapshot 868e3c39d9c7 period 2026-w45 record JSON ↓ source snapshot

Score derived from public data on Evidaxis methodology m5, never edited by hand. Cite as: “Evidaxis, AlphaFold3, entity e_88YAM3PXK4S, snapshot 2026-w45.”

Durable reference (format-independent): urn:evidaxis:claim:e_88YAM3PXK4S:m5:2026-11-07