Evidaxis

AlphaFold3

repo incumbent
AI Drug Discovery · n = 19 · google-deepmind/alphafold3
Calibration · conf medium
momentum
momentum 49.1 of 100 49.1 /100
momentum
49.1/100
pctile
p50
convergence gate
Convergence gate: gate shut × ×
gate
0 of 2 axes

gate shut.

gate shut
position in cohort distribution one of 19 in cohort
percentile 50 within cohort p25 p50 p75 p0 p100
percentile
p50
momentum is the combined velocity and citation signal, percentile within cohort
velocity z
velocity z gaugevelocity z-0.56 within cohort, log-slope -0.001/wk.0-0.56
velocity z
-0.56 σ
slope
-0.001/wk
log-slope -0.001/wk
convergence planefull gate = rising
AlphaFold3 on the convergence plane AlphaFold3 at velocity z -0.56 and citation z +0.42, against 13 dual-axis cohort peers. neither axis clears the Rising gate (z>=1 + positive slope). z>=1 median velocity z → citation z ↑ Boltz: velocity z -2.58, citation z +2.07 DeepChem: velocity z +2.96, citation z -0.73 DiffDock: velocity z +0.01, citation z -0.35 ESM / ESMFold: velocity z -0.03, citation z +0.49 Foldseek: velocity z -2.99, citation z +0.66 gnina: velocity z +2.86, citation z -0.35 Graphormer: velocity z +0.99, citation z -0.23 OpenFold: velocity z -0.02, citation z -0.41 ProteinMPNN: velocity z +0.00, citation z -0.51 RFdiffusion: velocity z +0.66, citation z +0.09 SaProt: velocity z -1.85, citation z +1.10 TorchDrug: velocity z +0.01, citation z -0.18 Uni-Mol: velocity z +0.01, citation z +0.54 AlphaFold3
velocity z
-0.56
citation z
+0.42
peers
18

neither axis clears the Rising gate (z>=1 + positive slope).

citation z
citation z gaugecitation z+0.42 within cohort, log-slope +1.802/yr.0+0.42
citation z
+0.42 σ
slope
+1.802/yr
log-slope +1.802/yr
cohort
19
systems measured
weekly commits
2.4
not rising
total citations
14,847
present
momentum
49.1
percentile p50
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks2.4/wk
weekly commits, 26 weeks26 weeks of commits, peak 7 in a week, 22 active weeks, 67 total.week 1: 2 commitsweek 2: 5 commitsweek 3: 4 commitsweek 4: 2 commitsweek 5: 1 commitsweek 6: 1 commitsweek 7: 1 commitsweek 8: 4 commitsweek 9: 1 commitsweek 10: 0 commitsweek 11: 7 commitsweek 12: 0 commitsweek 13: 4 commitsweek 14: 6 commitsweek 15: 3 commitsweek 16: 2 commitsweek 17: 1 commitsweek 18: 2 commitsweek 19: 0 commitsweek 20: 2 commitsweek 21: 2 commitsweek 22: 5 commitsweek 23: 5 commitsweek 24: 4 commitsweek 25: 3 commitsweek 26: 0 commits
weeks
26
peak/wk
7
active
22
total
67
citations by yeartotal 14,847
Citations by year2014: 1, 2020: 1, 2021: 1, 2022: 4, 2023: 17, 2024: 1919, 2025: 7550, 2026: 5354. Total 14847 citations.2014: 1 citations1412020: 1 citations2012021: 1 citations2112022: 4 citations2242023: 17 citations23172024: 1919 citations2419192025: 7550 citations2575502026: 5354 citations265354
total cites
14847
years
8
latest yr
5354

AlphaFold3 holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 49.1 of 100 on methodology m2, snapshot 2026-08-08, measured within the AI Drug Discovery cohort (n = 19). It is a mature incumbent included to calibrate the cohort, measured but not gate-eligible.

Derived signals

second-order reads, computed from the published series

Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number. How these are computed.

recency-weighted swing trailing 13-week vs prior 39-week log-slope ratio -1.28, regime reversing. prior slope +0.017, recent slope -0.021 per week. +0.017prior 39w-0.021recent 13w-1.28×
swing
-1.28×
regime
reversing
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
commit-axis Sharpe log-linear slope over residual std, value +0.022 with 95% CI +0.001 to +0.042, 50 degrees of freedom. CI excludes zero.0+0.02295% CI +0.001, +0.042+0.001+0.042
sharpe
+0.022
95% ci
+0.001, +0.042
dof
50
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
commit changepoint52 weekly commit points. Changepoint at week 50 (2026-07-25), slope change -2.043 commits per week.2026-07-25
date
week
50 of 52
Δslope
-2.043/wk
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
code-leads-citation lag reserved

reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
axis alpha vs cohort reserved

reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
gate ETA reserved

reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)

status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
methodology gate snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
commit weeks
52
citation years
8
shipped
3
reserved
3

shipped

  • recency-swing
  • commit-sharpe
  • commit-changepoint

reserved

  • code-leads-citation-lag
  • axis-alpha
  • gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2

Verdict

AlphaFold3 is a mature incumbent included to calibrate its cohort. It is measured but not badge-eligible.

Sources

google-deepmind/alphafold3 development-velocity axis
OpenAlex paper citation-momentum axis

Embed this badge

Evidaxis calibration, AlphaFold3
[![Evidaxis: AlphaFold3](https://evidaxis.org/badge/e_88YAM3PXK4S/2026-w32.svg)](https://evidaxis.org/e/e_88YAM3PXK4S)

Others in AI Drug Discovery

BioEmu AI Drug Discovery
Single-axis
88
p100
vel +3.02 cit no axis
axis dials
+3.02 n/a
Boltz AI Drug Discovery
Watch
47
p22
vel -2.58 cit +2.07
axis dials
-2.58 +2.07
Chai-1 AI Drug Discovery
Single-axis
30
p6
vel -1.62 cit no axis
axis dials
-1.62 n/a
DeepChem AI Drug Discovery
Tracked
64
p89
vel +2.96 cit -0.73
axis dials
+2.96 -0.73
DiffDock AI Drug Discovery
Tracked
48
p39
vel +0.01 cit -0.35
axis dials
+0.01 -0.35
DiffSBDD AI Drug Discovery
Single-axis
51
p61
vel +0.04 cit no axis
axis dials
+0.04 n/a

Full AI Drug Discovery cohort →

entity_id e_88YAM3PXK4S methodology m2 snapshot 035a72a81e59 period 2026-w32 record JSON ↓ source snapshot

Score derived from public data on Evidaxis methodology m2, never edited by hand. Cite as: “Evidaxis, AlphaFold3, entity e_88YAM3PXK4S, snapshot 2026-w32.”

Durable reference (format-independent): urn:evidaxis:claim:e_88YAM3PXK4S:m2:2026-08-08