position in cohort distributionone of 19 in cohort
percentile
p6
momentum is the combined velocity and citation signal, percentile within cohort
velocity z
velocity z
-1.62 σ
slope
-0.003/wk
log-slope -0.003/wk
convergence planefull gate = rising
velocity z
-1.62
citation z
no axis
peers
18
single-axis: citation axis absent, excluded from the plane.
citation z
∅no citation axis
no citation axis
cohort
19
systems measured
weekly commits
0.1
not rising
total citations
n/a
no axis
momentum
29.7
percentile p6
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks0.1/wk
weeks
26
peak/wk
2
active
3
total
4
citations by yearno axis
∅no citation axisaxis status: insufficient
Chai-1 holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 29.7 of 100 on methodology m2, snapshot 2026-08-08, measured within the AI Drug Discovery cohort (n = 19). No axis is currently rising within the cohort, and no second (citation) axis is available, so it sits below the two-axis gate.
Derived signals
second-order reads, computed from the published series
Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state
until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number.
How these are computed.
swing
-19.45×
regime
reversing
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
commit Sharpereserved: <26 non-zero commit weeks
changepoint
none detected
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
code-leads-citation lagreserved
reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation
status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
axis alpha vs cohortreserved
reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)
status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
gate ETAreserved
reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)
status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
methodology gate
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
commit weeks
52
citation years
3
shipped
2
reserved
4
shipped
recency-swing
commit-changepoint
reserved
commit-sharpe
code-leads-citation-lag
axis-alpha
gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 ·· m2
Verdict
Chai-1 is tracked. No axis is currently rising relative to its cohort, and it has no second (citation) axis available.
Path to Rising: needs development velocity to recover (at least 5 commits per week and a positive within-cohort slope); its citation history to mature (at least 3 completed years) and rise.
