Evidaxis

Gemini CLI

product
Coding Agents · n = 20 · google-gemini/gemini-cli
2 of 3 axes measurable · conf medium
convergence gate
Convergence gate: Gate: computed weekly across the cohort; no convergence event this week Development velocity: measured × Citation momentum: not measurable ∅ Direct-dependents momentum (deps.dev): measured ×
gate
0 of 3 axes

Gate: computed weekly across the cohort; no convergence event this week

Gate: computed weekly across the cohort; no convergence event this week
position in cohort distribution one of 20 in cohort
percentile 5 within cohort p25 p50 p75 p0 p100
percentile
p5
momentum averages present-axis z-scores; two- and three-axis scores are not strictly comparable
velocity z
velocity z gaugevelocity z-1.59 within cohort, log-slope -0.086/wk.0-1.59
velocity z
-1.59 σ
slope
-0.086/wk
log-slope -0.086/wk
citation z Citation source: not measured.
direct-dependents z
direct-dependents z gaugedirect-dependents z-0.38 within cohort, log-slope +0.012/point.0-0.38
direct-dependents z
-0.38 σ
slope
+0.012/point
Direct-dependents axis: measured.
cohort
20
systems measured
weekly commits
13.2
Development velocity axis: measured.
total citations
n/a
Citation source: not measured.
momentum
37.7
percentile p5
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks13.2/wk
weekly commits, 26 weeks26 weeks of commits, peak 134 in a week, 26 active weeks, 862 total.week 1: 134 commitsweek 2: 108 commitsweek 3: 60 commitsweek 4: 48 commitsweek 5: 91 commitsweek 6: 85 commitsweek 7: 67 commitsweek 8: 49 commitsweek 9: 11 commitsweek 10: 9 commitsweek 11: 11 commitsweek 12: 15 commitsweek 13: 12 commitsweek 14: 4 commitsweek 15: 13 commitsweek 16: 9 commitsweek 17: 12 commitsweek 18: 12 commitsweek 19: 23 commitsweek 20: 13 commitsweek 21: 17 commitsweek 22: 7 commitsweek 23: 11 commitsweek 24: 9 commitsweek 25: 16 commitsweek 26: 16 commits
weeks
26
peak/wk
134
active
26
total
862
citations by yearCitation source: not measured.

Gemini CLI holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 37.7 of 100 on methodology m3, snapshot 2026-09-26, measured within the Coding Agents cohort (n = 20). Axis coverage: 2 of 3 axes measurable. Gate: computed weekly across the cohort; no convergence event this week

Derived signals

second-order reads, computed from the published series

Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number. How these are computed.

recency-weighted swing trailing 13-week vs prior 39-week log-slope ratio -1.05, regime recent slope sign differs from prior window. prior slope -0.036, recent slope +0.037 per week. -0.036prior 39w+0.037recent 13w-1.05×
swing
-1.05×
regime
recent slope sign differs from prior window
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
commit-axis Sharpe log-linear slope over residual std, value -0.073 with 95% CI -0.123 to -0.024, 50 degrees of freedom. CI spans zero.0-0.07395% CI -0.123, -0.024-0.123-0.024
sharpe
-0.073
95% ci
-0.123, -0.024
dof
50
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
commit changepoint52 weekly commit points. Changepoint at week 5 (2025-11-01), slope change -20.441 commits per week.2025-11-01
date
week
5 of 52
Δslope
-20.441/wk
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
code-leads-citation lag reserved

reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
axis alpha vs cohort reserved

reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
gate ETA reserved

reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)

status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
methodology gate snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
commit weeks
52
citation years
0
shipped
3
reserved
3

shipped

  • recency-swing
  • commit-sharpe
  • commit-changepoint

reserved

  • code-leads-citation-lag
  • axis-alpha
  • gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3

Reconstructed history

Gemini CLI reconstructed weekly commits51 points, range 4 to 195 commits/wk.
min
4 commits/wk
max
195 commits/wk
latest
16 commits/wk
points
51

Weekly commits over the past year, reconstructed from git history (GitHub commit_activity). This is reconstructed, not a point-in-time capture. Evidaxis captures the Type-2 signals (watchers, issues, dependents) live and never backfills them; those are the moat.

Measurement states

Gemini CLI is under weekly measurement. History: 13 weekly observations; minimum 4. Development velocity axis: measured. Citation source: not measured. Direct-dependents axis: measured. Gate: computed weekly across the cohort; no convergence event this week

Sources

google-gemini/gemini-cli development-velocity axis
geminicli.com homepage

Others in Coding Agents

Agentless Coding Agents
1 of 3 axes measurable
38
p11
vel -0.97 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
-0.97 n/a n/a
Aider Coding Agents
2 of 3 axes measurable
44
p16
vel -0.52 cit no axis deps -0.37
axis dials
-0.52 n/a -0.37
ChatDev Coding Agents
1 of 3 axes measurable
35
p0
vel -1.17 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
-1.17 n/a n/a
Cline Coding Agents
2 of 3 axes measurable
54
p63
vel +1.30 cit no axis deps -0.70
axis dials
+1.30 n/a -0.70
Codex CLI Coding Agents
1 of 3 axes measurable
73
p95
vel +1.87 cit no axis deps no axis
axis dials
+1.87 n/a n/a
Continue Coding Agents
2 of 3 axes measurable
46
p21
vel -0.73 cit no axis deps +0.00
axis dials
-0.73 n/a +0.00

Full Coding Agents cohort →

Direct-dependents momentum (deps.dev)

Direct-dependents axis: measured.

Coverage state
scored
Cohort z
-0.38
OLS slope
+0.012
Theil-Sen slope
+0.012
Latest direct dependents
69
Confirmed-clean points
23
Reconstructed history points
15
As-of partition
2026-09-07
Fragility veto
inactive
Rising vote
no

This axis measures the frozen-panel trajectory of the package set selected and linkage-verified as of 2026-07-21. Systems outside that panel are not measured on this axis. Residual survivorship beyond the frozen universe is disclosed, not denied.

The earliest weekly points of each series were read from deps.dev's BigQuery history on 2026-07-21; later points are weekly captures. Each record reports how many of its points are reconstructed history.

Source: deps.dev (Google), CC-BY 4.0. Modified: aggregated to system-level counts and momentum scores.

Axis definition · Snapshot axis correlations

entity_id e_4A9TG2M8403 methodology m3 snapshot 9d2fe956adbc period 2026-w39 record JSON ↓ source snapshot

Score derived from public data on Evidaxis methodology m3, never edited by hand. Cite as: “Evidaxis, Gemini CLI, entity e_4A9TG2M8403, snapshot 2026-w39.”

Durable reference (format-independent): urn:evidaxis:claim:e_4A9TG2M8403:m3:2026-09-26