Evidaxis

Codex CLI

product
Coding Agents · n = 20 · openai/codex
Single-axis · conf low
momentum
momentum 57.1 of 100 57.1 /100
momentum
57.1/100
pctile
p84
convergence gate
Convergence gate: velocity only, citation axis absent × ∅
gate
0 of 2 axes

velocity only, citation axis absent.

gate shut
position in cohort distribution one of 20 in cohort
percentile 84 within cohort p25 p50 p75 p0 p100
percentile
p84
momentum is the combined velocity and citation signal, percentile within cohort
velocity z
velocity z gaugevelocity z+0.57 within cohort, log-slope -0.007/wk.0+0.57
velocity z
+0.57 σ
slope
-0.007/wk
log-slope -0.007/wk
convergence planefull gate = rising
Codex CLI on the convergence plane Codex CLI at velocity z +0.57 and citation z no axis, against 0 dual-axis cohort peers. single-axis: citation axis absent, excluded from the plane. z>=1 median velocity z → citation z ↑
velocity z
+0.57
citation z
no axis
peers
19

single-axis: citation axis absent, excluded from the plane.

citation z no citation axis
cohort
20
systems measured
weekly commits
205.2
not rising
total citations
n/a
no axis
momentum
57.1
percentile p84
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks205.2/wk
weekly commits, 26 weeks26 weeks of commits, peak 294 in a week, 26 active weeks, 5557 total.week 1: 275 commitsweek 2: 185 commitsweek 3: 213 commitsweek 4: 209 commitsweek 5: 218 commitsweek 6: 155 commitsweek 7: 222 commitsweek 8: 142 commitsweek 9: 188 commitsweek 10: 241 commitsweek 11: 294 commitsweek 12: 277 commitsweek 13: 241 commitsweek 14: 234 commitsweek 15: 224 commitsweek 16: 184 commitsweek 17: 221 commitsweek 18: 241 commitsweek 19: 205 commitsweek 20: 257 commitsweek 21: 26 commitsweek 22: 190 commitsweek 23: 201 commitsweek 24: 278 commitsweek 25: 204 commitsweek 26: 232 commits
weeks
26
peak/wk
294
active
26
total
5557
citations by yearno axis

Codex CLI holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 57.1 of 100 on methodology m2, snapshot 2026-08-08, measured within the Coding Agents cohort (n = 20). No axis is currently rising within the cohort, and no second (citation) axis is available, so it sits below the two-axis gate.

Derived signals

second-order reads, computed from the published series

Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number. How these are computed.

recency-weighted swing trailing 13-week vs prior 39-week log-slope ratio -0.28, regime reversing. prior slope +0.033, recent slope -0.009 per week. +0.033prior 39w-0.009recent 13w-0.28×
swing
-0.28×
regime
reversing
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
commit-axis Sharpe log-linear slope over residual std, value +0.045 with 95% CI +0.023 to +0.068, 50 degrees of freedom. CI excludes zero.0+0.04595% CI +0.023, +0.068+0.023+0.068
sharpe
+0.045
95% ci
+0.023, +0.068
dof
50
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
commit changepoint52 weekly commit points. No significant changepoint detected (|delta slope| within the noise floor).no significant changepoint
changepoint
none detected
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
code-leads-citation lag reserved

reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
axis alpha vs cohort reserved

reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
gate ETA reserved

reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)

status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
methodology gate snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2
commit weeks
52
citation years
0
shipped
3
reserved
3

shipped

  • recency-swing
  • commit-sharpe
  • commit-changepoint

reserved

  • code-leads-citation-lag
  • axis-alpha
  • gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m2

Verdict

Codex CLI is tracked. No axis is currently rising relative to its cohort, and it has no second (citation) axis available.

Path to Rising: needs development velocity to turn positive within its cohort; a second measurable axis to exist (no academic paper is currently tracked).

Sources

openai/codex development-velocity axis

Embed this badge

Evidaxis single-axis, Codex CLI
[![Evidaxis: Codex CLI](https://evidaxis.org/badge/e_W2REDH3NZ0S/2026-w32.svg)](https://evidaxis.org/e/e_W2REDH3NZ0S)

Others in Coding Agents

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vel -0.31 cit no axis
axis dials
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Cline Coding Agents
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vel -3.00 cit no axis
axis dials
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Crush Coding Agents
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vel +0.51 cit no axis
axis dials
+0.51 n/a

Full Coding Agents cohort →

entity_id e_W2REDH3NZ0S methodology m2 snapshot 035a72a81e59 period 2026-w32 record JSON ↓ source snapshot

Score derived from public data on Evidaxis methodology m2, never edited by hand. Cite as: “Evidaxis, Codex CLI, entity e_W2REDH3NZ0S, snapshot 2026-w32.”

Durable reference (format-independent): urn:evidaxis:claim:e_W2REDH3NZ0S:m2:2026-08-08