Evidaxis

UI-TARS Desktop

repo
GUI & Computer-Use Agents · n = 7 · bytedance/UI-TARS-desktop
2 of 3 axes measurable · conf medium
convergence gate
Convergence gate: Gate: computed weekly across the cohort; no convergence event this week Development velocity: measured × Citation momentum: not measurable ∅ Direct-dependents momentum (deps.dev): measured ×
gate
0 of 3 axes

Gate: computed weekly across the cohort; no convergence event this week

Gate: computed weekly across the cohort; no convergence event this week
position in cohort distribution one of 7 in cohort
percentile 83 within cohort p25 p50 p75 p0 p100
percentile
p83
momentum averages present-axis z-scores; two- and three-axis scores are not strictly comparable
velocity z
velocity z gaugevelocity z+1.30 within cohort, log-slope +0.013/wk.0+1.30
velocity z
+1.30 σ
slope
+0.013/wk
log-slope +0.013/wk
citation z Citation axis: insufficient source coverage (source returned too few observations).
direct-dependents z
direct-dependents z gaugedirect-dependents z+0.00 within cohort, log-slope +0.007/point.0+0.00
direct-dependents z
+0.00 σ
slope
+0.007/point
Direct-dependents axis: measured.
cohort
7
systems measured
weekly commits
0.4
Development velocity axis: measured.
total citations
n/a
Citation axis: insufficient source coverage (source returned too few observations).
momentum
58.1
percentile p83
commit heatmap, last 26 weeks0.4/wk
weekly commits, 26 weeks26 weeks of commits, peak 5 in a week, 3 active weeks, 7 total.week 1: 0 commitsweek 2: 0 commitsweek 3: 0 commitsweek 4: 0 commitsweek 5: 0 commitsweek 6: 0 commitsweek 7: 0 commitsweek 8: 1 commitsweek 9: 0 commitsweek 10: 0 commitsweek 11: 0 commitsweek 12: 0 commitsweek 13: 0 commitsweek 14: 1 commitsweek 15: 0 commitsweek 16: 0 commitsweek 17: 0 commitsweek 18: 0 commitsweek 19: 0 commitsweek 20: 0 commitsweek 21: 0 commitsweek 22: 0 commitsweek 23: 0 commitsweek 24: 0 commitsweek 25: 0 commitsweek 26: 5 commits
weeks
26
peak/wk
5
active
3
total
7
citations by yearCitation axis: insufficient source coverage (source returned too few observations).

UI-TARS Desktop holds an Evidaxis momentum score of 58.1 of 100 on methodology m3, snapshot 2026-09-26, measured within the GUI & Computer-Use Agents cohort (n = 7). Axis coverage: 2 of 3 axes measurable. Gate: computed weekly across the cohort; no convergence event this week

Derived signals

second-order reads, computed from the published series

Three signals ship when the commit series is statistically sufficient; the rest are held in a reserved state until the data supports them. A reserved signal shows its reason, never a fabricated number. How these are computed.

recency-weighted swing trailing 13-week vs prior 39-week log-slope ratio -0.81, regime recent slope sign differs from prior window. prior slope -0.045, recent slope +0.036 per week. -0.045prior 39w+0.036recent 13w-0.81×
swing
-0.81×
regime
recent slope sign differs from prior window
windows
13w vs 39w
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
commit Sharpereserved: <26 non-zero commit weeks
commit changepoint52 weekly commit points. No significant changepoint detected (|delta slope| within the noise floor).no significant changepoint
changepoint
none detected
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
code-leads-citation lag reserved

reserved: citation series too short / axis absent for cross-correlation

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
axis alpha vs cohort reserved

reserved: cohort N too small for regression (power ~0)

status
reserved
value
insufficient data
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
gate ETA reserved

reserved: needs snapshot history (1 snapshot exists)

status
reserved
value
insufficient history
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
methodology gate snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3
commit weeks
52
citation years
2
shipped
2
reserved
4

shipped

  • recency-swing
  • commit-changepoint

reserved

  • commit-sharpe
  • code-leads-citation-lag
  • axis-alpha
  • gate-eta
snapshot 1 of 1 · · m3

Reconstructed history

UI-TARS Desktop reconstructed weekly commits17 points, range 1 to 14 commits/wk.
min
1 commits/wk
max
14 commits/wk
latest
1 commits/wk
points
17

Weekly commits over the past year, reconstructed from git history (GitHub commit_activity). This is reconstructed, not a point-in-time capture. Evidaxis captures the Type-2 signals (watchers, issues, dependents) live and never backfills them; those are the moat.

Measurement states

UI-TARS Desktop is under weekly measurement. History: 13 weekly observations; minimum 4. Development velocity axis: measured. Citation axis: insufficient source coverage (source returned too few observations). Direct-dependents axis: measured. Gate: computed weekly across the cohort; no convergence event this week

Sources

bytedance/UI-TARS-desktop development-velocity axis
OpenAlex paper citation-momentum axis

Direct-dependents momentum (deps.dev)

Direct-dependents axis: measured.

Coverage state
scored
Cohort z
+0.00
OLS slope
+0.007
Theil-Sen slope
+0.006
Latest direct dependents
76
Confirmed-clean points
23
Reconstructed history points
15
As-of partition
2026-09-07
Fragility veto
inactive
Rising vote
no

This axis measures the frozen-panel trajectory of the package set selected and linkage-verified as of 2026-07-21. Systems outside that panel are not measured on this axis. Residual survivorship beyond the frozen universe is disclosed, not denied.

The earliest weekly points of each series were read from deps.dev's BigQuery history on 2026-07-21; later points are weekly captures. Each record reports how many of its points are reconstructed history.

Source: deps.dev (Google), CC-BY 4.0. Modified: aggregated to system-level counts and momentum scores.

Axis definition · Snapshot axis correlations

entity_id e_A4CCB1NFPZB methodology m3 snapshot 9d2fe956adbc period 2026-w39 record JSON ↓ source snapshot

Score derived from public data on Evidaxis methodology m3, never edited by hand. Cite as: “Evidaxis, UI-TARS Desktop, entity e_A4CCB1NFPZB, snapshot 2026-w39.”

Durable reference (format-independent): urn:evidaxis:claim:e_A4CCB1NFPZB:m3:2026-09-26